ImPROving Quality of LIFe in the Long COVID Patient

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpriornonpostcell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe efficacytype diabetesplasmavisit
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 431 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Learn About the Study Medicines (Nirmatrelvir Plus Ritonavir) in People Aged 12 Years or Older With COVID-19 and a Compromised Immune System NCT05438602 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About a Repeat 5-Day Treatment With the Study Medicines (Called Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir) in People 12 Years Old or Older With Return of COVID-19 Symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 Positivity After Finishing Treatment With Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir NCT05567952 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Decentralized, Randomized Phase 2 Efficacy and Safety Study of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in Adults with Long COVID. NCT05668091 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine Called Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in People Who Are Healthy Volunteers Co-administered the Medicine Rosuvastatin NCT05898672 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Relative Bioavailability Study of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Oral Powder Relative to the Commercial Tablets and Estimation of the Effect of Food on Bioavailability of the Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Oral Powder in Healthy Participants. NCT05544786 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.