Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Crossover Study of Atrasentan in Subjects With IgA Nephropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindin subjectscontrolledsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgcrossoverparticipantperiodmin
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1557 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate Safety and Effect of Sparsentan in Combination With SGLT2 Inhibition in Participants With IgAN NCT05856760 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LNP023 in Primary IgA Nephropathy Patients NCT04578834 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Dapagliflozin in Non-diabetic Stage IV CKD NCT04794517 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Empagliflozin in Patients With Glomerulonephritis NCT05283057 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atrasentan on Reducing Albuminuria in Type 2 Diabetic Nephropathy Treated With Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors NCT00920764 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.