Comparison of Topical 5% Permethrin and Topical 10% Sulfur in the Treatment of Scabies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient18 yearsantidiagnosiscalled
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacycomparecomparisontopicaldrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 29.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16893 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparative Study Between Topical Permethrin 5% and Oral Ivermectin for the Treatment of Scabies NCT05362513 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Sulfur vs. Different Regimes of Permethrin for Scabies NCT06396507 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Therapeutic Equivalence of Generic Permethrin Cream 5% to Elimite® in the Treatment of Scabies NCT02572986 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study Between Two Different Dosages of an Antiparasitic in Patients With Crusted Scabies NCT02841215 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Dose Ranging Vehicle Controlled Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy of Permethrin Foam, 5% and Permethrin Foam, 4% for the Treatment of Scabies NCT02094716 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.