A Study in Participants With Mild-to-moderate Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: slemonthsto screeningdiseaselupus
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate theto evaluatevaccination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-220 in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03161483 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of GDC-0853 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02908100 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of NKTR-358 (LY3471851) in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT03556007 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Study of BOS161721 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Patients on a Background of Limited Standard of Care NCT03371251 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Double-Blinded, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Biochemical Activity of Intravenous Cpn10 Administration in Subjects With Mild to Moderate SLE. NCT01838694 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.