Ritlecitinib in CTCL

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient hasstagecellcancerconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetytopicalsafety ofevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 33.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 324 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of IPH4102 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Cutaneous T-cell Lymphomas (CTCL) NCT02593045 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Vorinostat in Patients With Primary Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma NCT00958074 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ABT-199 (Venetoclax) for Cutaneous T Cell Lymphoma (CTCL) NCT04171791 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Epicutaneous Cryoimmunotherapy Combined With Pembrolizumab for Cutaneous Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03982004 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Study of MK-2118 Administered as Intratumoral Injection as Monotherapy and in Combination With Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) or by Subcutaneous Injection in Combination With Pembrolizumab in the Treatment of Adults With Advanced/Metastatic Solid Tumors or Lymphomas (MK-2118-001) NCT03249792 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.