Choline Effects - Pre-symptomatic AD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectopinion ofthe opinionpatientrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: safetybloodseverethe purposepurpose of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 48.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49894 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Clinical Safety/Tolerability and Exploratory Efficacy of EHT 0202 as Adjunctive Therapy to Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitor in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00880412 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study of CNP520 Versus Placebo in Participants at Risk for the Onset of Clinical Symptoms of Alzheimer's Disease NCT03131453 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK239512 in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01009255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study of CAD106 and CNP520 Versus Placebo in Participants at Risk for the Onset of Clinical Symptoms of Alzheimer's Disease NCT02565511 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• DHA Brain Delivery Trial NCT03613844 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.