Transdermal Rotigotine as Adjunct to Behavioral Therapy for Cocaine Use Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 56 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainconcurrentcancertherapynegative
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscocainein treatmenttestspulmonary
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 350 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Pharmacokinetic Profiles of LY03003 and Neupro NCT03733561 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Aripiprazole for Prevention of Relapse to Cocaine Use in Methadone-Maintenance Patients NCT00780702 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Interaction Between TMP-301 and Cocaine. NCT06648668 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Open-Label, Crossover Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetic Profiles of Rotigotine After a Single Dose of LY03003 (28 mg) Versus After a Week of Daily NEUPRO® Transdermal Patch (4 mg Every 24 Hours) in Healthy Volunteers NCT04384666 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Drug Interaction and Self Administration Studies of Compounds for Cocaine Use Disorder NCT02537873 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.