A Clinical Study to Evaluate an Experimental Universal Influenza Vaccine, INFLUENZA G1 mHA, in Healthy Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-08-19, after 2023-05-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: typewithin monthsgradeprior28 days
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyinfluenzavaccinationvaccines -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 40 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity of a Live-attenuated Universal Flu Vaccine Followed by an Inactivated Universal Flu Vaccine NCT03300050 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Biologicals' Quadrivalent Influenza Candidate Vaccine (GSK2321138A) Manufactured Using a New Process in Adults and Children NCT02207413 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Different Formulations of Monovalent Influenza A/Astrakhan/3212/2020 Like (H5N8) Virus Vaccine With AS03 Adjuvant System in Medically Stable Adults NCT05975840 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Quadrivalent Influenza VLP Vaccine Dose Ranging Study in Young Adults NCT02307851 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Immunogenicity, Safety and Tolerability of Adjuvanted and Non-Adjuvanted H2N3 Influenza Vaccines in Adults NCT05875961 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.