A Phase I/II Study to Evaluate a SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine in Healthy Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-07-19, after 2022-01-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumorpriorphase iitherapynode
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyimmunogenicityvaccinesallergic -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Booster NCT05897190 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- SCB-2019 as COVID-19 Vaccine NCT04405908 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity Study of Recombinant Protein RBD Candidate Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2 in Adult Healthy Volunteers (COVID-19) NCT05007509 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- KBP-201 COVID-19 Vaccine Trial in Healthy Volunteers NCT04473690 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity and Safety Study of Heterologous Booster Vaccination of a SARS-CoV-2 Recombinant Protein Nanoparticle Vaccine(GBP510) Adjuvanted with AS03 in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older NCT05501522 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.