Study of the Plasmodium Vivax Transmission-blocking Vaccine Pvs230D1-EPA/Matrix-M to Assess Safety, Immunogenicity, and Transmission-blocking Activity in Healthy Malaria-naive Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-11-12, after 2023-08-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: the followingexcludeddiagnosiseligibleprior
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationhealthyvolunteersthe investigator -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1441 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1441 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 77 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Controlled Human Malaria Infections to Evaluate Protection After Intravenous or Intramuscular Administration of PfSPZ Vaccine in Malaria-Naive Adults NCT02015091 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Experimental PfSPZ Vaccine in Adults Without Malaria NCT01441167 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Study of the Transmission-Blocking Vaccine Pfs230D1-EPA/Matrix-M Against Malaria in Adults in Mali NCT05135273 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety, Immunogenicity, and Protective Efficacy of Two Regimens of Radiation Attenuated Plasmodium Falciparum NF54 Sporozoites (PfSPZ Vaccine) During Natural Transmission Season in Healthy African Adults in Mali NCT03510481 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- VAC071: A Study to Assess Efficacy of the ChAd63/MVA PvDBP Vaccines NCT04009096 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.