A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Participant Choice and Preference of an Oral Once-daily Regimen or a Long-acting Injectable Regimen Every Two Months for Treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1) in Adults Who Have Not Previously Taken Antiretroviral Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycelldiseasepatientevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantvaccinescreeninginvestigator
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluating Implementation Strategies for Cabotegravir (CAB)+ Rilpivirine (RPV) Long-acting (LA) Injectables for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Treatment in European Countries NCT04399551 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Range Finding Clinical Trial Study in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1) Infected Treatment-Naive Adults NCT04493216 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• Regimen Switch to Dolutegravir/Lamivudine Fixed Dose Combination From Current Antiretroviral Regimen in HIV-1 Infected and Virologically Suppressed Adults (SALSA) NCT04021290 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Antiviral Effect, Safety and Tolerability of GSK3810109A in Viremic Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Infected Adults NCT04871113 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of CABENUVA NCT05601128 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.