A 2-part Study Consisting of Multiple Ascending Dose (MAD) Safety Study, and a Dose-finding Masked Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Intravitreal (IVT) EYE103 in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) or Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (NVAMD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingmaculareyedegenerationage related
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacysafety ofpatientsopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1b Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Exploratory Efficacy of Intravitreal OLN324 NCT07484074 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of IVT MHU650 in Macular Edema Patients NCT04635800 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Ranibizumab 0.5mg and 2.0mg to Treat Diabetic Macular Edema in Patients With Poor Response to Bevacizumab NCT01292798 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Safety Tolerability and Efficacy of Intravitreal LMG324 in the Treatment of Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT02398500 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability Study of UBX1325 in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema or Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT04537884 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.