The Effects of Mesenchymal Stem Cell Secretome in Lupus Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-09, after 2022-08-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstemtrial ofpatientslupus
Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialmesenchymal stemcriteriathe effectspatients this -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus With Pooled Allogenic Mesenchymal Stem Cells NCT04184258 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Trial of Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (MiSLE) NCT02633163 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Pilot Trial of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03171194 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- The Effects of Mesenchymal Stem Cell Secretome in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT05925647 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Amniotic Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Lupus Nephritis NCT04318600 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.