A Study of Retatrutide (LY3437943) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Obesity or Overweight

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycarcinomamultipleor equalequal to
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbodyand safetyscreeningkg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1562 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Retatrutide (LY3437943) in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight NCT05929066 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3549492 in Adults With Obesity or Overweight With Type 2 Diabetes NCT07030868 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Obstructive Sleep Apnea Master Protocol GPIF: A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT05412004 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of the Effects on Sleep Disordered Breathing (SDB) When Using the Drug Liraglutide for 4 Weeks NCT01832532 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3305677 Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight NCT06124807 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.