Piperacillin/Tazobactam Versus ceftriAxone and Metronidazole for Children With Perforated Appendicitis (ALPACA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinedetermine whetherchildrenthe purposepurpose of
  Phrases that lowered it: randomizedopentrial iscontrolledstudy to
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 116915 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intraperitoneal Administration of Fosfomycin, Metronidazole and Molgramostim Versus Intravenous Antibiotics for Perforated Appendicitis NCT03435900 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Dilute Povidone-iodine Irrigation vs No Irrigation for Children With Acute, Perforated Appendicitis NCT02664220 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Non-operative Treatment of Acute Non-perforated Appendicitis NCT04030741 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Intraperitoneal Administration in Patients Undergoing Appendectomy for Uncomplicated Appendicitis NCT03046758 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Piperacllin Versus Placebo in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Acute Cholecystitis NCT02619149 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.