MDMA for AUD/PTSD Comorbidity

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicenrollmenttraumaticmonthsdisorder
  Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluateparticipantsinvestigatoralcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MDMA-assisted Brief Cognitive Behavioral Conjoint Therapy for PTSD NCT05979844 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Study in Major Depressive Disorder With NMRA-335140 (BTRX-335140) vs Placebo NCT04221230 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• MDMA-Assisted Psychotherapy in Veterans With Combat-Related, Refractory PTSD NCT04264026 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of TMP-301 Compared to Placebo in Adult Patients With Alcohol Use Disorder NCT06648655 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Interaction Between TMP-301 and Cocaine. NCT06648668 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.