LXE408 for Treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Ethiopia, a Proof of Concept Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-11-13, after 2024-03-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: careimpairmentmssevereinvestigational drug
Phrases that lowered it: patientsefficacyphase iiwith historyconducted in -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 44 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 43 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15603 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1279 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- antimony, gluconate, paromomycin, stibogluconate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase II, Multicentre, Randomized, Two-arm Blinded Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Two LXE408 Regimens for Treatment of Patients With Primary Visceral Leishmaniasis NCT05593666 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Steady State Global Bioequivalence Study of Amphotericin B Liposome for Injection 50 mg/ Vial in Fed Condition NCT03636659 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A First-in-human, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of LXE408 in Healthy Subjects NCT07809919 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Miltefosine/Paromomycin Phase III Trial for Treatment of Primary Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Patients in Eastern Africa NCT03129646 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate Different Combination Treatment Regimens for Visceral Leishmaniasis NCT00696969 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.