Methylprednisolone in Patients With Cognitive Deficits in Post-COVID-19 Syndrome (PCS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboweeksreceivelongfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: trialparticipantsclinicalconductedpatients with
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 142334 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 289 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14449 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Temelimab as a Disease Modifying Therapy in Patients With Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Post-COVID 19 or PASC Syndrome NCT05497089 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Prednisolone and Vitamin B1/6/12 in Patients With Post-Covid-Syndrome NCT05638633 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of RSLV-132 in Subjects With Long COVID NCT04944121 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Brain and Gut Plasticity in Mild TBI or Post-acute COVID Syndrome Following Growth Hormone Therapy NCT03554265 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Pycnogenol® in Post-COVID-19 Condition NCT05890534 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.