Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Deucravacitinib Compared to Placebo Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS).
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-04-10, after 2023-11-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painsubjectopioidpriorwomen
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsvisitscreeninginvestigator -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 282 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 282 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 35 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1052 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1024 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 11.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- deucravacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Bermekimab in Patients With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04019041 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Single Center Study of Apremilast for the Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT02695212 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test Whether Spesolimab Helps People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04762277 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Brensocatib in Adults With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT06685835 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
- Topical Ruxolitinib 1.5% for Hidradenitis Suppurativa Treatment NCT04414514 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.