Dapagliflozin Effects on Coronary Calcium and Epicardial Fat Assessed by Cardiotomography

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (234 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsinfarctioncoronarymyocardialtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: diabetesmalecardiovascularmellituswith type
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8178 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• SGLT-2 Inhibitor and Myocardial Perfusion, Function and Metabolism in T2 DM Patients at High Cardiovascular Risk NCT03151343 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Effects of SGLT2 Inhibition on Myocardial Insulin Sensitivity NCT03313752 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Impact of DApagliflozin on Cardiac Function Following Anterior Myocardial Infarction in Non-Diabetic Patients NCT05424315 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Multicenter Trial to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Cardiovascular Events NCT01730534 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Effects of Ranolazine on Coronary Flow Reserve in Symptomatic Diabetic Patients and CAD NCT01754259 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.