A Trial Investigating Lu AF28996 in Adult Japanese Participants With Parkinson's Disease (PD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-11-21, after 2023-09-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: disorderparkinson diseasepdtolerabilityjapanese
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsgoodopen labelevaluate the -
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 153 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 21 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Lu AF82422 in Healthy Non-Japanese and Japanese Subjects and in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT03611569 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Lu AF28996 in Participants With Parkinson's Disease (PD) NCT04291859 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- An Exploratory Study Investigating Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Ascending Doses of Lu AE04621 in Parkinson Disease Patients NCT02649608 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of AFQ056 When Combined With Increased Doses of L-dopa in Parkinson's Disease Patients With Moderate-severe L-dopa Induced Dyskinesia NCT01092065 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Open Label, Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of AFQ056 in Parkinson's Patients With L-dopa Induced Dyskinesias NCT01173731 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.