Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Repeat Intravitreal Injections of Foselutoclax (UBX1325) in Patients With DME (ASPIRE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsassessconcurrenttoxicitytolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetythe efficacyefficacy andsafety of20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Evidence of Activity Study of UBX1325 in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema (BEHOLD) NCT04857996 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of UBX1325 in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema or Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT04537884 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Dose Ranging Study of OPT-302 With Aflibercept for Persistent Diabetic Macular Edema NCT03397264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Topical Administration of FOV2304 (High Dose or Low Dose) for the Treatment of Center-involving Clinically Significant Macular Edema Associated With Diabetic Retinopathy NCT01319487 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• DME And VEGF Trap-Eye [Intravitreal Aflibercept Injection (IAI;EYLEA®;BAY86-5321)] INvestigation of Clinical Impact NCT00789477 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.