Extended-release Buprenorphine Compared to Sublingual Buprenorphine in Rural Settings (RXR)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-14, after 2024-10-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: be willingpatientsafeopioiddepression
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantstrial28in good -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 129042 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 10 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 129042 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7852 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- buprenorphine, buprenorphine naloxone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Extended-release Pharmacotherapy for Opioid Use Disorder NCT05164549 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- EXHIT ENTRE Comparative Effectiveness Trial NCT04345718 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Extended-Release Buprenorphine vs. Sublingual Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder NCT04352166 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Emergency Department-Initiated Buprenorphine Validation Network Trial NCT04225598 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Oral Buprenorphine as a Novel Low-dose Induction Strategy for Opioid Use Disorder NCT06086275 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.