Bolus vs. Continuous IV Lidocaine Against Post-Extubation Cough in Post-Thyroidectomy Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: intravenouspostlunginfusionadministration
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofasthmadiseaseshistory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 80029 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose-response Study of Lidocaine and Etomidate NCT01916642 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Bilateral Superficial Cervical Plexus Block in Thyroidectomy NCT01454609 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Dexmedetomidine in Reducing Incidence of Emergence Agitation After Nasal Surgery NCT05634148 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Effect of Betamethasone Gel and Lidocaine Jelly on Sore Throat, Cough and Hoarseness of NCT02114021 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Antagonism Research Between Antiemetics Agents and Acetaminophen in Thyroidectomy's Post-operative Analgesia. NCT01679093 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.