MisOpRostol Effect on Second Trimester Abortion Blood Loss
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-07-12, after 2024-02-08 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lossbloodhemorrhageplaceboundergoing
Phrases that lowered it: effectmultipleparticipantsday ofweeks -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 969 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16774 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 969 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 187 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16774 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 511 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- misoprostol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Preoperative Buccal Misoprostol on Blood Loss in Second-trimester Dilation and Evacuation Abortion NCT01436266 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- Comparing Buccal and Vaginal Misoprostol in Management of Early Pregnancy Loss NCT02141555 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Misoprostol for Cervical Priming Prior to Vacuum Aspiration NCT01933360 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Comparison Between Letrozole and Mifepristone in Medical Termination of First Trimester Miscarriages NCT05304273 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Medical Abortion With Single Daily Dose of Misoprostol NCT03487354 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.