A Study Of PGN-EDO51 In Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Amenable To Exon 51-Skipping Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termextensionterm safetythe longcell
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatescreeningmultiplesafety
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Two-Part Study for Dose Determination of Vesleteplirsen (SRP-5051) (Part A), Then Dose Expansion (Part B) in Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Amenable to Exon 51-Skipping Treatment NCT04004065 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• Dose-Titration and Open-label Extension Study of SRP-4045 in Advanced Stage Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) Patients NCT02530905 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label Extension Study of Edasalonexent in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT03917719 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dose of SRP-5051 (Vesleteplirsen) in Patients With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT03375255 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Eteplirsen to Treat Advanced Stage Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT02286947 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.