A Study of Deucravacitinib to Treat LPP and FFA
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-24, after 2023-11-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientrandomizationcellsbmsheart
Phrases that lowered it: investigatormalevaccinemedical historythe study -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1417 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1052 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1417 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 236 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1052 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1024 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 11.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- deucravacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Baricitinib (LY3009104) in the Treatment of Cutaneous Lichen Planus NCT05188521 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Deucravacitinib (BMS-986165) for Pityriasis Rubra Pilaris NCT06444399 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Baricitinib for the Treatment of Ocular Mucous Membrane Pemphigoid NCT05263505 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Baricitinib in Sjogren's Syndrome NCT05016297 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- PanACEA DElpazolid Dose-finding and COmbination DEvelopment (DECODE) NCT04550832 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.