Managing Chronic Tendon Pain by Metformin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicdiseasediagnosisdeterminekidney
  Phrases that lowered it: painindexscreeningparticipantsthe trial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 417986 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26911 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of NGI226 Microparticles in Patients With Achilles Tendinopathy NCT05592990 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Micronized dHACM Injectable for the Treatment of Achille Tendonitis NCT03414255 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of RCT-01 in Men and Women With Unilateral, Chronic Achilles Tendinosis NCT02330146 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Metformin for the Prevention of Episodic Migraine (MPEM) NCT02593097 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Erenumab-aooe for Temporomandibular Disorders Management: TMD Cgrp Antibody RElief (TMD CARE) NCT05162027 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.