A Study to Evaluate Vonoprazan in Children Who Have Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (176 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationpriorulndiagnosisdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantspharmacokineticssafety ofmoderate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 11 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Safety of Vonoprazan in Adolescents With Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease NCT05343364 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Vonoprazan Compared to Placebo in Participants With Symptomatic Non-Erosive Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease NCT04799158 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Two Vonoprazan Orally Disintegrating Tablet Formulations Administered Without Water or Mixed With Water and Administered Via a Syringe Relative to the Vonoprazan Tablet in Healthy Participants NCT06831344 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Bioavailability of Vonoprazan Sprinkle Capsules on Pudding or on Applesauce Relative to a Vonoprazan Tablet in Healthy Participants NCT05366738 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Vonoprazan Compared to Placebo for Relief of Heartburn in Participants With Symptomatic Non-Erosive Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (NERD) NCT05195528 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.