A Study to Evaluate ARD-501 in Patients With Autism Spectrum Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disordereffectiveunstablebipolarcontraception
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssafetyscreeningevaluate theto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 12-Week Crossover Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of L1-79 in Subjects Aged 12-21 Years With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT05067582 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A 12-Week Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of RO7017773 in Participants Aged 15-45 Years With Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) NCT04299464 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Proof-of-Concept Study of Minocycline in Autism NCT04031755 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Lurasidone Pediatric Autism Study NCT01911442 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Arbaclofen in Children and Adolescents With ASD NCT03682978 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.