Effects of NT-0796 in Obese Participants at Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientmrifailurediseaseheart
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopeneffect ofthe pharmacokineticsthe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of NT-0796 in Participants With Obesity With or Without Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT07055516 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Study to Explore the Safety and Efficacy of NT-0796 as an Adjunct to Semaglutide in Participants With Obesity (RESOLVE-2) NCT07220629 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study of Retatrutide (LY3437943) in Participants With Obesity and Cardiovascular Disease NCT05882045 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD for Multiple Doses of NNC9204-0530 in Male and Female Subjects Being Overweight or With Obesity NCT02835235 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A First Human Dose Trial Investigating Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics for Single Doses of NNC9204-1177 in Subjects Being Overweight or With Obesity. NCT02941042 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.