A Study to Test Whether Survodutide Helps Japanese People Living With Obesity Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: syndromepresence ofsurgerydiseaseiii
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbodykgbmiparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 778 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test Whether Survodutide (BI 456906) Helps Chinese People Living With Overweight or Obesity to Lose Weight NCT06214741 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CPX101 in Overweight and Obese Subjects Without Diabetes Mellitus NCT06532578 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Research Study to Investigate How Well Semaglutide Tablets Taken Once Daily Work in East Asian People Who Are Overweight or Living With Obesity NCT05132088 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Effects of BGM0504 Injection and Semaglutide Injection on Obese Subjects. NCT07836140 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study in People With Overweight or Obesity to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1820237 Are Tolerated When Given Alone or in Combination With Either Semaglutide or BI 456906 NCT05751226 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.