A Trial of YL-13027 in Combination With Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel in Patients With Refractory Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paclitaxelheartreceivingcoronarysurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe investigatorthe studyinterfereparticipant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 168 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1176 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 136495 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Assessing Safety and Efficacy of Combination of BL-8040 and Pembrolizumab in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Patients NCT02826486 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Nivolumab With Nab-Paclitaxel Plus or Minus Gemcitabine in Pancreatic Cancer, Nab-Paclitaxel / Carboplatin in Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer or Nab-Paclitaxel in Recurrent Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02309177 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• BMS-813160 With Nivolumab and Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel in Borderline Resectable and Locally Advanced Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) NCT03496662 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• M7824 (MSB0011359C) in Combination With Gemcitabine in Adults With Previously Treated Advanced Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas NCT03451773 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Nab-paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine in Chinese Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02017015 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.