A Study to Assess Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (Cycle-1-REF)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-10-10, after 2024-02-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebodefinedsurgeryevidencesyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: visitmale60 dayswithin 60clinical -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (Cycle-2-PEF) NCT06215586 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Study to Explore the Efficacy of TRV027 in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT01966601 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy (Effect on Disease) and Safety of Finerenone in Participants With Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (Proportion of Blood Expelled Per Heart Stroke) Greater or Equal to 40% NCT04435626 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Effects of TRV120027 in Patients With Heart Failure NCT01187836 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.