A Study of LY3541860 in Adult Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplesclerosisrelapsingrandomizationor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsto investigateinvestigate theaccordingto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1609 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT00882999 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Rebif, Copaxone, and Tysabri for Active Multiple Sclerosis NCT01058005 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Study in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Glatiramer Acetate (GA) Injection 40 mg Administered Three Times a Week Compared to Placebo NCT01067521 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of ELND002 in Patients With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT01144351 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.