Study of Oral Atogepant Tablets to Assess Safety and Efficacy in Adult Participants With Migraine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priortreatingpaintreatmenteffective
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelhistorywill receivean open
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 368 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparative Study of Oral Atogepant Versus Oral Topiramate to Assess Adverse Events in Adult Participants With Migraine NCT05748483 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Atogepant for the Prevention of Chronic Migraine NCT03855137 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Atogepant for Prophylaxis of Migraine in Participants Who Failed Previous Oral Prophylactic Treatments. NCT04740827 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study of Oral Atogepant When Added to OnabotulinumtoxinA (BOTOX) to Assess Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity in Adult Participants With Chronic Migraine NCT05216263 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• 12-Week Placebo-controlled Study of Atogepant for the Preventive Treatment of Migraine in Participants With Episodic Migraine NCT03777059 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.