A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Different Doses of BI 3031185 Are Tolerated and How Food Influences the Amount of BI 3031185 in the Blood

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability andbiand pharmacokineticsdoses
  Phrases that lowered it: effecttabletfoodhealthythe pharmacokinetics
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 784 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Different Doses of BI 3000202 Are Tolerated and How Food Influences the Amount of BI 3000202 in the Blood NCT05945888 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Different Doses of BI 1815368 Are Tolerated and How BI 1815368 is Taken up in the Body With or Without Food NCT05337592 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Different Doses of BI 1584862 Are Tolerated and How BI 1584862 is Taken up in the Body With or Without Food NCT05520827 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Men to Find Out How Different Doses of BI 3009947 Are Tolerated and How Different Formulations or Food Influence How BI 3009947 is Taken up Into the Blood NCT07250048 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics of Single Rising Oral Doses of BI 1181181 in Healthy Male Volunteers, Including Investigation of the Effect of Food on the Bioavailability of BI 1181181 NCT02044406 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.