Prolonged Release Pirfenidone Versus Placebo in Compensated Cirrhosis.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: liverfibrosisplacebokidneycirrhosis
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateefficacyclinicaltrial to
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pirfenidone and Advanced Liver Fibrosis. NCT04099407 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of the Combination of Simvastatin Plus Rifaximin in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis to Prevent ACLF Development NCT03780673 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Simvastatin Plus Rifaximin in Decompensated Cirrhosis NCT03150459 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of Hydronidone Capsules in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Fibrosis NCT07417553 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• 8- Versus 12-week of Sofosbuvir-ravidasvir Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C NCT04885855 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.