A Study of IBI311 in Subjects With Steroid-resistant, Thyroid Associated Ophthalmopathy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (67 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-07-03, after 2024-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsstudy eyescreeningsubjectmonths prior
Phrases that lowered it: moderateto severeand safetymmefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 51 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 79 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of IBI311 in Subjects With Inactive or Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT06525506 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- A Study of IBI311 in Subjects With Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT05795621 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess Batoclimab in Participants With Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT05517421 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess Batoclimab in Participants With Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT05524571 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab 300 mg in Patients With Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) NCT04737330 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.