DMB-I in the Treatment of Alzheimer Type Dementia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerbraindementiathe patientcognitive
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andthe efficacysafety ofdiseases
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of BAC in Patient With Alzheimer's Disease or Vascular Dementia NCT02886494 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• PMZ-1620 (Sovateltide) in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04052737 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Prospekta in the Treatment of Cognitive, Behavioral and Psychiatric Disorders in Patients With Vascular Dementia. NCT04552041 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Multinational, Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Active Comparator, Phase III Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Donepezil Transdermal Patch in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03197740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Alzheimer Disease Proof of Concept Study With BI 409306 Versus Placebo NCT02240693 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.