A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AST-001 in ASD Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionplacebothe subjectinjurycore
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialand safetychildrenopen labelevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics Study of STP1 in a Subgroup of Patients With Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) NCT04644003 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Targeting GABA-A for the Treatment of Social Disability in Young Adults With Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Phase II Proof of Mechanism Trial NCT01966679 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study of Cariprazine Oral Capsules or Solution to Assess Adverse Events and Change in Irritability Due to Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Participants Aged 5-17 Years With ASD NCT05439616 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A 12-Week Crossover Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of L1-79 in Subjects Aged 12-21 Years With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT05067582 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of JNJ-42165279 in Adolescent and Adult Participants With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT03664232 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.