ON 123300 (Narazaciclib) and Dexamethasone in Patients With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-04-28, after 2024-10-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerdiscontinuedcellpriorqt
Phrases that lowered it: drugmultipledrugshivuser -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 307114 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 24251 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 307114 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24251 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone, dobesilate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Panobinostat in Combination With Daratumumab, Bortezomib and Dexamethasone for the Treatment of Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04956302 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- A Study of ANV419 Alone or in Combination With Approved Treatments in Patients With Multiple Myeloma (OMNIA-2) NCT05641324 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
- Study of LVGN7409 (CD40 Agonist Antibody) in Locally Advanced, Metastatic or Recurrent/Refractory Malignancy NCT05152212 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Ribociclib + PDR001 in Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer NCT03294694 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- OX40, Venetoclax, Avelumab, Glasdegib, Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin, and Azacitidine in Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT03390296 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.