Anifrolumab for Hidradenitis Suppurativa
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-07-15, after 2024-06-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomacellcancereligibleprior
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdrugeffecthistory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 112 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 806 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 806 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 112 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 883 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 482 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 51.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anifrolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Studying Complement Inhibition in Patients With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03001622 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03569371 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Lunsayil 1: A Study to Test Whether Spesolimab Helps People With a Skin Disease Called Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT05819398 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Bermekimab in Patients With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04019041 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- To Assess the Efficacy and Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04476043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.