The Influence of Tramadol on Opioid-induced Bowel Dysfunction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: opioidhoursbowelpainplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersmalealcoholperiod
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17324 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Naloxone SR Capsules in Patients With Opioid Induced Constipation NCT00984334 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Study to Explore the Influence of Two Opioid Pain Medications on Bacterial Composition in the Gut and Other Gastrointestinal Aspects NCT01915147 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Tramadol to Improve Its Detection in Biological Matrices in Anti-doping Controls NCT05925686 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel-Group Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of TD-1211 in Subjects With Opioid-Induced Constipation NCT01459926 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Naldemedine (S-297995) for the Treatment of Opioid-Induced Bowel Dysfunction in Subjects With Chronic Pain NCT01122030 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.