To Evaluate the Effects of NMRA-335140 on Symptoms of Major Depression in Participants With Bipolar II Disorder.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: monthssymptomsprimarypriorscore
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateparticipantsparticipantalcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effects of Oral NMRA-335140 Versus Placebo in Participants With Major Depressive Disorder NCT06029426 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Effects of Oral NMRA-335140 in Participants With Major Depressive Disorder NCT06058039 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Effects of Oral NMRA-335140 Versus Placebo in Participants With Major Depressive Disorder NCT06058013 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of an Investigational Drug for the Treatment of Major Depressive Episode Associated With Bipolar I Disorder. NCT05169710 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Armodafinil Treatment (150 mg/Day) as Adjunctive Therapy in Adults With Major Depression Associated With Bipolar I Disorder NCT01305408 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.