A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous Amlitelimab Monotherapy Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Severe Alopecia Areata

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionplacebo controlledsevereblind placebomonths
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstopicaland safetyscalpefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1094 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ATI-50002 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Alopecia Areata NCT03354637 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Jaktinib in Adults With Alopecia Areata NCT05051761 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of ATI-50002 in Subjects With Alopecia Universalis (AU) and Alopecia Totalis (AT) NCT03315689 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• ATI-502 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Alopecia Areata (AA), Alopecia Universalis (AU) and Alopecia Totalis (AT) NCT03759340 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GT20029 Solution in the Treatment of Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) in Chinese Adult Males NCT06692465 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.