Phase II Study of Durvalumab(MEDI4736) + Tremelimumab in Pulmonary Sarcomatoid Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapypatientulnand necksquamous cell
  Phrases that lowered it: hepaticcardiovascularwith normalweightsystemic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 197 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 408 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Feasibility & Efficacy of Durvalumab+Tremelimumab+RT and Durvalumab+RT in Non-resect. Locally Advanced HPVnegativ HNSCC NCT03624231 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab With or Without Tremelimumab in Treating Participants With Stage II-IVA Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Cancer NCT03144778 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Combination With Cisplatin and Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) in Head and Neck Cancer NCT02777385 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of MEDI4736, Tremelimumab, and MEDI4736 in Combination w/ Tremelimumab Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02319044 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) for First Line Treatment of Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck (MK-3475-048/KEYNOTE-048) NCT02358031 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.