Treatment of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis With Liposomal Amphotericin B in the Elderly
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-09-01, after 2019-03-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: presencecutaneousdiseasecontrolledassociated
Phrases that lowered it: mgtrialthe aimaim ofmedication -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 38.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8787 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8787 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2146 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 38.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- amphotericin b
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Topical Liposomal Amphotericin B Gel Treatment for Cutaneous Leishmaniasis NCT02656797 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Single Infusion of Liposomal Amphotericin B in Indian Visceral Leishmaniasis NCT00628719 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Topical 3% Amphotericin B Cream for the Treatment of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Colombia NCT01845727 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Liposomal Amphotericin in Disseminated Leishmaniasis NCT02025491 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- To Study the Effect Of Single Infusions Of Amphotericin B Lipid Preparations in Treatment of Patients Of Kala Azar NCT00876824 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.