A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Enlicitide (MK-0616, Oral PCSK9 Inhibitor) Compared With Ezetimibe or Bempedoic Acid or Ezetimibe and Bempedoic Acid in Adults With Hypercholesterolemia (MK-0616-018/CORALreef AddOn)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1516 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailureimagingventriculartreated
  Phrases that lowered it: mgto evaluateand safetyefficacy andmonths before
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6698 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 81293 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Enlicitide Decanoate (MK-0616 Oral PCSK9 Inhibitor) in Adults With Hypercholesterolemia (MK-0616-013) CORALreef Lipids NCT05952856 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study of Enlicitide Decanoate (MK-0616 Oral PCSK9 Inhibitor) in Adults With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia (MK-0616-017/CORALreef HeFH) NCT05952869 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Enclitide Chloride (MK-0616 Oral PCSK9 Inhibitor) in Adults With Hypercholesterolemia (MK-0616-008) NCT05261126 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Bempedoic Acid Plus Ezetimibe Fixed-Dose Combination Compared to Bempedoic Acid, Ezetimibe, and Placebo in Patients Treated With Maximally Tolerated Statin Therapy NCT03337308 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Assess the Long Term Safety and Tolerability of MK-0653C in Japanese Participants With Hypercholesterolemia (MK-0653C-384) NCT02460159 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.