Study of Lumateperone in the Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Mania

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutescalecognitivescoreplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andpatient hasthe efficacysafety of
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Lumateperone in the Acute Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Mania NCT06462586 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial Evaluating Lumateperone Monotherapy in the Treatment of Bipolar Depression or Major Depressive Disorder NCT04285515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Mood Stabilizer (MS)+ Antidepressant vs MS + Placebo in Maintenance of Bipolar Disorder. NCT00958633 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Fixed-dose Safety and Efficacy Study of Asenapine for the Treatment of Acute Manic or Mixed Episode in Bipolar 1 Disorder (P05691) NCT00764478 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Lumateperone as Adjunctive Therapy in the Treatment of Patients With Major Depressive Disorder NCT04985942 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.